Considering Russia’s initial war aims and its 500-year domination of Ukraine, Kyiv has won a victory that could pave the way for lasting peace: contrary to all expectations, Ukraine has fought the Russian army to a standstill, secured control over 80% of its territory, consolidated its national identity and pro-West orientation, and opened the way to EU accession.

It is not, of course, a complete victory. That would mean reconquering all the territory that Russia has occupied since 2014. Such a victory is militarily impossible, and the Western analysts who write that Ukraine has turned the tide and momentum is now on the side of Ukraine have misunderstood the realities of this war.

A combination of drones, mines and satellite intelligence has made it impossible for the Russian army to concentrate its forces sufficiently for a breakthrough. As a result, the war on the ground has worn down to a stalemate, in which reduced forces on both sides take tiny amounts of territory, often only briefly. However, exactly the same factors that have prevented the Russians from advancing will impede the Ukrainians if they try to launch a major offensive.

Those in the West who demand that any peace settlement include absolute guarantees against future Russian aggression are displaying strategic illiteracy. History provides no example of a lasting guarantee of anything. The only way to achieve such certainty would be to destroy the Russian state once and for all; it is to guard against this possibility that Russia possesses a huge nuclear arsenal. 

If the truce between the US and Iran lasts, then perhaps the Trump administration will return to negotiations with Russia and forge a viable peace. For this, however, European participation will be essential: only the EU can offer sufficient incentives for Russia and Ukraine to abandon their mutually unacceptable demands.

Will Russia negotiate?

But, we are told, ‘Russia refuses to negotiate.’ Nonsense. What (…)

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