Melbourne is likely to go a full week without wet weather — unusual for mid-winter, when cold fronts typically push through every few days.

But it’s not entirely out of character for the recent pattern either. There was already a lengthy dry spell last week, and now another is taking shape.

High pressure is the driving force behind the settled conditions. This time around, there wasn’t a significant cold outbreak ahead of its arrival, so the frost risk is lower than last time.

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Some areas of regional Victoria will still see cold overnight temperatures, but nothing as extreme or as prolonged as the previous stretch.

Before the full benefits of the high kick in, there’s still some grey to get through.

Southerly winds — light, but enough — are dragging moisture into southern and far western Victoria, bringing overcast skies and patches of foggy low cloud.

It’s only once the centre of the high shifts to our east that the sunshine can really take hold.

Melbourne’s eight day outlook. Credit: 7NEWS

The rainfall percentage for Victoria. Credit: Bureau of Meteorology

That shift looks likely to happen on Friday. So after what could be a bleak Thursday, expect brightness to return from Friday morning — and it should stick around.

Two sunny weekend days in mid-July is a win. Get out and enjoy it.

It’s halfway through the month and Melbourne has recorded 36mm of rain so far in July. The monthly average is 48mm, so we’re tracking reasonably well — but the dry week ahead may start to put that in jeopardy.

The next change is due around the middle of next week, though at this stage it doesn’t look like a particularly strong one.