The leaders of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are publicly considering hosting nuclear weapons, prompting Russia to tighten security around the Kaliningrad region and to warn that an air or sea blockade of the exclave could lead to the use of its full arsenal, including nuclear arms. Moscow views steps Western capitals describe as deterrence not as security but as moves toward conflict.

Placing nuclear weapons in the Baltic states would further strain relations between Russia and NATO, heighten the risk of escalation, and could trigger a new arms race, with serious consequences for the continent’s security. The Kremlin, commenting on what is being called a “nuclear fever” in those countries, has said that states deploying nuclear weapons near Russia’s borders are deceiving themselves, because such deployments lead to escalation, not to security.

Nonetheless, deployment remains uncertain and hinges on how relations between Moscow and the Alliance develop, particularly regarding NATO’s future leadership. Deploying nuclear weapons is a lengthy process that requires extensive preparation, so the outcome will depend on how events unfold. If it happens, Russia will view it as a direct threat to its security, potentially prompting a military response.

The Kremlin’s concern follows statements from the Baltic capitals. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics says Latvia is ready to accept the deployment of nuclear weapons if NATO makes a collective decision, noting that Latvian law poses no legal obstacle. Lithuania has gone further in its domestic law.

On September 22, the Lithuanian parliament backed a proposal to fully repeal Article 137 of the Constitution—the clause that bars weapons of mass destruction and foreign military bases from Lithuanian territory. The vote was 99 in favor, 13 against, and five abstentions. That is not yet the abolition of the ban or a decision to station weapons, since changing the Constitution requires two further votes, at least three months apart, with at least 94 of 141 members of parliament voting each time.

Moscow views the start of the process as a significant shift in Lithuania’s security policy. Although warheads would not arrive automatically, lifting the legal barrier could pave the way for new forms of NATO military presence, including the transit and temporary basing of foreign forces, equipment, and arms, as well as the use of military infrastructure during a crisis. Lithuania claims the change is needed to adapt legislation to new circumstances and to the country’s role as an eastern NATO member. However, placing nuclear weapons aimed at Russia in one of the Baltic states could make that state a target for Russia’s nuclear arsenal.

Only countries with nuclear weapons can decide to deploy them in the Baltics. In Europe, these are NATO members France and Britain, along with the United States. Even if the weapons were brought onto their territory, the Baltic states would not control them. The nuclear power that owns them, not the host state, would decide whether to use them.

At the heart of the issue is Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania. Moscow is taking steps to secure the region as Western discussions continue on a possible air and sea blockade. A blockade or attack on Kaliningrad would pose an extremely serious risk of direct conflict between Russia and NATO. The issue has taken on greater significance after reports that President Vladimir Putin ordered measures to secure Kaliningrad and that Nikolai Patrushev, an aide to the Russian leader and chairman of Russia’s Maritime Board, said the necessary orders were being carried out carefully.

.

Map of Kaliningrad (Source: Encyclopedia Britannica)

.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has confirmed that the Alliance received a Russian warning that, in the event of an air or sea blockade of Kaliningrad, Russia would use its entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons.

An act of NATO aggression against the Kaliningrad region would amount to an all-European war and could quickly escalate into a nuclear conflict, with devastating consequences for Europe and the world. This is why Kaliningrad remains one of Europe’s most sensitive points. Kaliningrad is strategically vital to Russia, surrounded by Alliance states and located in an area where the military balance is shifting rapidly. Though geographically cut off from the rest of Russia, its Baltic location and proximity to Poland and Lithuania make it a potential point of direct contact.

Another risk is the rapid militarization of European states, especially Germany.

Raising military capacity as relations with Russia harden can heighten the risk of a wider conflict, especially given Germany’s propensity to instigate Europe-wide conflicts that have led to tens of millions of deaths and the ruin of entire cities and industries.

Discussions about a nuclear presence in countries that have no nuclear weapons of their own and would not control anyone else’s, along with warnings that a blockade of an isolated Russian region could trigger a wider conflict—even a nuclear one—suggest the West is preparing for conflict with Russia. For these reasons, Moscow has no choice but to continue militarizing Kaliningrad to ensure Russia’s security amid NATO hostility.

*

Click the share button below to email/forward this article. Follow us on Instagram and X and subscribe to our Telegram Channel. Feel free to repost Global Research articles with proper attribution.

Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.

Global Research is a reader-funded media. We do not accept any funding from corporations or governments. Help us stay afloat. Click the image below to make a one-time or recurring donation.