In the coming week Shadow Home Affairs Minister Jonno Duniam will release the Coalition’s migration plan - promising precise numbers, economic modelling and an explanation of how it will impact the community.

Senator Duniam has indicated to 7NEWS that the Opposition policy will favour cuts to foreign students over backpackers.

The Tasmanian Liberal Senator, who is about to quit federal politics at the ripe age of 43, has taken a shot at the net-negative migration plan unveiled by Pauline Hanson and One Nation last month.

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The One Nation policy, which was released without costings or modelling, would cut 750,000 temporary visas over three years, followed by a permanent annual cap of 130,000 net overseas migration (NOM).

One Nation’s policy would cut 750,000 temporary visas over three years. Credit: AAP

“The problem with One Nation is they say things people want to hear, but never back it up with detail,” Duniam tells 7NEWS podcast The Issue.

“Their policies will become law (if One Nation wins government), but we don’t understand how they work because they haven’t been able to explain them.”

Coalition plan explained

Duniam said his policy will be governed by workforce needs and a NOM target that marries up to housing completions – also criticising Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke’s plan, announced last month, for barely tinkering around the edges.

Around 172,000 homes were built last year according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which means the Coalition target will be at or below that figure.

Duniam criticised Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke’s plan. (Lukas Coch/AAP PHOTOS) Credit: AAP

That wedges the Opposition below Labor’s 2027/28 NOM target of 225,000, and above One Nation’s long-term target of 130,000.

The Albanese Government aims to hit its goal by capping second and third-year backpacker visas with a lottery system.

That’s a no-go-zone for Duniam because the Coalition’s key business supporters include farmers, tourism operators and small businesses who are reliant on working holiday labour.

“We don’t believe the lottery system… is one that is viable,” Duniam said.

“It provides a huge amount of uncertainty. Our plan will be more comprehensive. It’s one where you won’t see farmers, wine growers and fruit and berry growers, you won’t see the hospitality sector out there criticising us.”

UK backpacker issue ‘needs to be dealt with’

Duniam admits the UK-Australia Free Trade Deal that was negotiated by the previous Coalition Government does have unintended consequences that ‘need to be dealt with’.

Under the plan British backpackers can come to Australia on working holiday visas but are no longer required to do work in the regions.

The Coalition would support the Albanese Government if it negotiated a solution to the problem with the Burnham UK Government.

“There is that unintended consequence that does need to be dealt with,” Duniam said.

“I’m sure the Government will come up with a way.”

International student cuts

If backpackers are off the table, then international student numbers are the obvious target for the Coalition to reach its NOM target.

According to the ABS and Australian National University (ANU) Migration Hub they make up the highest number of temporary migrants currently in the country at 589,923.

Shadow Home Affairs Minister Jonno Duniam. Credit: 7NEWS

Duniam has taken aim at education institutions like Sydney University where 51 per cent of students are foreign.

“That’s not good on any front,” he says.

“That is filling your boots and trying to rake in as much cash as possible to prop up a business model.”

The Shadow Home Affairs Minister says his plan would bring international numbers down in a targeted way, pointing the finger at private institutions he claims “sell citizenship rather than education”.

Parties focusing on wrong areas, ANU expert says

Associate Professor Alan Gamlen, from the ANU’s Migration Hub, says all the parties are looking in the wrong place to fix the problem.

He warns a focus on cuts to arrivals will create a rollercoaster effect were numbers swing wildly out of balance - creating workforce issues.

Gamlen says arrival numbers have stabilised and aren’t the problem, and that federal parliamentarians should be focusing their attention on departures.

A graph of temporary visa holders in Australia. Credit: ABS, ANU

Many temporary visas were extended during and after the Covid pandemic.

“It’s processing that delayed departure cohort, that will solve the problems we’ve got,” Gamlen said.

Duniam’s imminent migration policy reveal represents a crucial moment in the political cycle.

If it lands well with conservative voters and business, it will give Opposition Leader Angus Taylor a much-needed boost.

If it sinks, it will condemn the Coalition to political oblivion.

You can catch more of The Issue on Listnr or watch full episodes on our YouTube channel.