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Jane Bunn breaks down why Victoria’s latest rain and flood picture including warnings

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The widespread rain system has finally moved on from Victoria, but not before delivering significant rain totals, flooding and damaging winds in alpine areas.

We may be sitting in a strong El Niño pattern — which typically encourages drier than average conditions here — but tropical moisture feeding into a cut off low tracking across Victoria was enough to deliver 20mm to 50mm across much of the state. It also delivered 50mm to 100mm on the ranges, and more than 100mm in the alps.

It’s a reminder that with the right weather system, we can still get substantial rain in an otherwise dry year.

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Chinkapook in northwest Victoria after 50mm of rain.Chinkapook in northwest Victoria after 50mm of rain. Credit: Lindal Taylor
Victoria’s rain totals over the past week.Victoria’s rain totals over the past week. Credit: 7NEWS

The latest flood picture, as of 5pm Tuesday, shows extensive areas of the state still inundated. Major flooding is occurring on the Ovens River, with moderate flooding on the Kiewa, King, Broken and Loddon Rivers as well as Seven Creeks.

Several more catchments are sitting at minor flood level, and new warnings were issued for the Latrobe and Wimmera Rivers on Tuesday afternoon. 

Victoria’s latest flood picture, as of 5pm Tuesday.Victoria’s latest flood picture, as of 5pm Tuesday. Credit: 7NEWS

The current warnings:

  • Major Flood Warning — Ovens River
  • Moderate Flood Warning — Kiewa River, King River, Broken River, Seven Creeks, Loddon River
  • Minor Flood Warning — Latrobe River, Goulburn River, Yea River, Avoca River, Wimmera River

Tuesday is offering a breather under a ridge of high pressure. There’s still some wet weather around, but it’s much lighter and more isolated — a few millimetres at best.

The next cold front arrives for Victoria on Wednesday. Showers increase over the southwest overnight before spreading across more of the state during the day.

It comes through in two waves, as there are two separate disturbances embedded in the system. For Melbourne, that means showers are likely in the morning to early afternoon, then again at night.

But this will be nothing like the last system. There’s no cut off low wandering across us, and no tropical moisture feed, so the fronts are whisked through quickly with far less moisture to work with.

These disturbances are also sliding across Victoria rather than stalling or amplifying, which reduces their impact even further. We’re looking at highest totals around the 10mm mark — rather than 100mm.

Even weaker disturbances follow at the end of the week, before high pressure moves in slowly over the weekend.

Once the centre of that high sits to our east early next week, sunshine and warmer conditions follow. Melbourne may go close to 20C on Tuesday or Wednesday, before the next disturbance arrives.

A very different week ahead — and for those still dealing with floodwater, a welcome one.

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