On 17 April, unknown traders placed roughly $760 million in bets on falling oil prices minutes before Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh concerns over high-volume insider trading related to wartime events.

To read this article in the following languages, click the Translate Website button below the author’s name.

Between 12:24 and 12:25 GMT, traders sold 7,990 lots of Brent crude futures – contracts that reflect predictions on future oil prices – according to LSEG data, with the transactions valued at about $760 million.

Roughly 20 minutes later, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced via social media that “the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire.”

Crude prices dropped by as much as 11 percent within minutes, with US crude falling to around $83 per barrel and Brent to about $89 per barrel, reflecting the immediate impact of the announcement on global energy markets.

Friday’s well-timed bets are not unique; similar large trades have been seen before major US policy and war announcements, such as ceasefire agreements and military escalations. 

Reuters previously reported that around $950 million in similar bets were placed on 7 April, just hours before a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US was announced. 

A similar pattern was reported earlier in March, when $580 million in oil futures were traded minutes before US President Donald Trump posted about “productive conversations” with Tehran, which triggered a sharp sell-off in crude prices.

Trading volumes surged unusually ahead of the announcement, with one market strategist noting it was “hard to prove causality … but you have to wonder who would have been relatively aggressive” in placing such bets before the news broke. 

US lawmakers and legal experts have raised concerns that such “well-timed trades” may indicate that certain market participants benefit from early access to sensitive geopolitical decisions. 

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is now investigating several of these transactions, including those linked to the March and April events, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Previously, AP identified dozens of newly created accounts that placed winning bets on a US-Iran ceasefire just minutes before the announcement, including one account that turned roughly $31,900 into $48,500 within minutes.

At the start of the US war on Iran, a Polymarket user identified as “Magamyman” reportedly made about $515,000 in a single day after betting on a US strike on Iran roughly 71 minutes before the news became public.

Before that, an anonymous trader reportedly turned $32,000 into roughly $436,000 by placing bets on the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro shortly before any US operational information was made public.

*

Click the share button below to email/forward this article. Follow us on Instagram and X and subscribe to our Telegram Channel. Feel free to repost Global Research articles with proper attribution.

Featured image is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0

Global Research is a reader-funded media. We do not accept any funding from corporations or governments. Help us stay afloat. Click the image below to make a one-time or recurring donation.