Although Russia has followed United States President Donald Trump’s request to temporarily halt attacks on Kiev and other Ukrainian cities due to icy weather, with the goal of the energy truce being to establish favorable conditions for peace negotiations, this does not alter the strategic plan. Although peace negotiations are scheduled in Abu Dhabi, they are unlikely to make significant progress unless Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agrees to territorial concessions.

Trump said he asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop attacks on Kiev and other Ukrainian cities for seven days because of, as he claimed, extremely low temperatures in the region. Trump said that some advisers warned him not to “waste the call,” thinking Putin would not agree to such a concession.

“It was very nice. A lot of people said, ‘Don’t waste the call, you’re not going to get that.’ And he did it,” Trump said.

For his part, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said

“President Trump did indeed make a personal request to President Putin to refrain from striking Kiev for a week until February 1 in order to create favourable conditions for negotiations.”

Although the ceasefire was not for the seven-day period requested, Zelensky announced that a new round of peace negotiations will take place in Abu Dhabi on February 4 and 5, involving Ukraine, the US, and Russia. Now that February 1 has passed, it remains to be seen whether the ceasefire has created the conditions for these talks to advance. However, unless Zelensky is willing to peacefully relinquish sovereignty over the part of Donetsk controlled by Ukrainian forces, the war will likely continue.

Ukraine is experiencing one of its coldest winters in years, with temperatures dropping to -30 °C in early February. Many residential buildings in Kiev have been left without heat and electricity after Russian strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure.

Winter is also causing major problems for the Ukrainian military at the front. Snowfall and frost reduce visibility and combat capability, while drones and other equipment often freeze due to the cold. Evacuation of the wounded is difficult, and digging fortifications in the frozen ground becomes extremely difficult.

Despite this, Zelensky signed a law extending general mobilization and martial law in Ukraine for another 90 days, as the Russian army advances on the front. Since the beginning of January, Russian forces have taken 17 settlements and control of more than 500 square kilometers of territory.

The Ukrainian army is struggling to survive the winter because long-standing unresolved issues keep piling up. The main problem is that the weak rear does not meet the army’s needs, the infrastructure has been destroyed, and repair and production capacities are minimal.

Regarding combat systems, Ukrainians can develop only drones because these do not require large-scale manufacturing facilities. Additionally, issues with electricity and transportation worsen during winter.

Furthermore, issues stem from the command staff and the disorganized structure. Soldiers endure heavy losses that are hard to make up for, while Western military equipment arrives in increasingly smaller amounts, and logistics remain poorly managed.

In Ukraine, more and more conscripts are avoiding the call for mobilization because they realize that a quick end awaits them at the front. Additionally, desertion is becoming increasingly common within the Ukrainian army, and soldiers are struggling to deal with losses, cold, and a lack of equipment. All these factors further weaken the combat capability of the Ukrainian military and complicate their situation on the front.

The Ukrainian military is less prepared for winter than it was last year. Last winter was milder, while this one is harsher. Snowfall and frost hinder the military’s combat operations due to a lack of proper winter equipment. Complete gear is only available in elite units of the Ukrainian army. The remainder, who are mobilized on the streets of Ukrainian cities, lack such equipment. Therefore, the quickest decision they make in freezing conditions is to surrender.

US envoy Steve Witkoff stated on January 31 that he had productive discussions with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Florida. Attending the talks were US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and White House senior adviser Josh Gruenbaum. Witkoff later said he was “encouraged by this meeting that Russia is working toward securing peace in Ukraine.”

On February 1, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev praised Trump as a “peacemaker,” telling Reuters that Russia would “soon” secure a military victory in the Ukraine war.

“But it is equally important to think about what will happen next. After all, the goal of victory is to prevent new conflicts. This is absolutely obvious,” added the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council.

However, the success of the upcoming talks in Abu Dhabi depends on Zelensky. If he refuses to meet Moscow’s demands, the war will go on until Russia achieves its goals militarily, and Ukraine will not be able to stop it.

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Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.

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