Although the European Union can threaten United States President Donald Trump with a “trade bazooka,” the bloc cannot do anything realistic about the harsh tariffs imposed. Trump’s new tariffs are political moves, but the reality is different — the EU economy is in serious trouble, and Brussels cannot fix it with any measures, including turning to China, as the US president can turn off the gas tap.

The EU’s “trade bazooka” refers to the Anti-Coercion Instrument, a powerful legal tool designed to counter economic blackmail from foreign powers. While originally conceived with China in mind, EU leaders threatened in January to deploy it against Trump in response to his recent tariff threats of 10%–25% linked to a proposed US purchase of Greenland.

After the US Supreme Court on February 20 ruled Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs to be unconstitutional, he responded by announcing new tariffs, including a universal 10% tax on all imports and saying they would be raised to 15%, although the timing is still unclear.

Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s international trade committee, echoed the Supreme Court, saying that the US had breached the terms of its trade deal with the European Union and that the bloc is ready to retaliate if necessary.

“We wanted to have really stability and predictability. And unfortunately, the government, the president of the United States, has really made a breach of this deal several times,” Lange told CNBC on February 24.

The EU cannot afford even a small shake to its economy and needs to react now because it is on the brink of a severe recession. Reality and facts are prevailing, and politics must adapt.

Since Trump is abandoning the agreement with the EU, it is no longer bound by anything and can normally apply its defensive measures in accordance with World Trade Organization rules. Trump’s decision essentially means that, since the EU has not yet ratified the previous agreement with the US, the new global tariffs decision also applies to that agreement. This includes Japan, South Korea, and any other country that has made a deal with the US, which is what this new 10% increase is about.

The US president aims to mathematically demonstrate that, even if the court eliminates his tariff revenues—which are really taxes on his own economy and citizens in the end—he still wants to keep budget income close to last year’s level, which was around $200 billion.

As a response from the EU, one logical move would be to introduce tariffs on American goods because these goods would no longer be duty-free. But once that starts, a new problem arises – Washington threatening not to provide gas to the EU or massively increasing the price.

It is clear that European officials recognize that dealing with Trump will be difficult, and he is unlikely to give in either. That is why the EU moved quickly to strengthen ties with other major powers like China. However, they still lack a solution to the gas issue. All EU officials can visit China, but the continent still needs Russian gas.

However, instead of returning to Russian gas, the EU is in the process of finalizing a complete phase-out of Russian gas, with laws passed in January 2026 to ban LNG imports by early 2027 and pipeline gas by late 2027. While Russian gas accounted for only 13% of EU imports in 2025, down from over 40% before 2022, significant volumes, particularly LNG, continue to enter the EU. Member states like Hungary and Slovakia opposed the measures, citing high levels of dependency.

Short-term contracts for Russian LNG will be banned starting April 25, while long-term contracts will be prohibited starting January 1, 2027. Meanwhile, short-term pipeline contracts are banned from June 17, and long-term contracts are banned by September 30 or November 1, depending on storage levels. The regulation includes penalties of at least €40 million for companies that violate the bans. Despite these upcoming restrictions, the EU remains a major buyer of Russian LNG, with France, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands being key recipients in 2025.

The ban faces scrutiny, with experts arguing it sits in a legal gray zone, and Hungary plans to challenge the legislation at the European Court of Justice.

If Washington chooses not to supply gas to the EU, which is already near record lows, the economy will come to a complete halt. Therefore, the notion that Brussels is planning major actions against the US is entirely pointless, as even if it were to occur, it would lead to no positive changes and would only further harm the EU’s already fragile economy.

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Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.

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