The Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean has once again become the focus of international attention.

The dispute over the territory has long since outgrown the framework of legal agreements between the United Kingdom and Mauritius and is now directly tied to the strategic interests of the United States, for which the military base on Diego Garcia remains one of the key pillars of American military presence abroad.

The history of the archipelago remains one of the most controversial chapters of Britain’s colonial past. During the 1960s and 1970s, with U.S. approval, the United Kingdom forcibly removed the indigenous Chagossian population to Mauritius and the Seychelles, clearing Diego Garcia for the construction of an American military base. The base was later used by Washington during military operations in the Middle East, South Asia, and East Africa.

The United States Reassesses Its Strategy in the Indian Ocean

Azerbaijani political analyst Ilgar Velizade links the current crisis surrounding the archipelago to decisions made long before the present political period. According to him, the international environment has changed significantly since Joe Biden and his administration left office. Rising tensions around Iran and growing instability in the Middle East have made Diego Garcia an even more valuable strategic asset for the United States.

“Whereas the United States previously placed greater emphasis on formal agreements, the Trump administration is now guided primarily by pragmatic considerations. Washington has made it clear that London moved too quickly in trying to implement the deal,” he said.

The expert notes that the United States is currently reassessing the entire architecture of its military presence across the region, including facilities in the Persian Gulf. Washington is evaluating possible changes to its military posture in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and other regional partners. Against this backdrop, Diego Garcia has become one of the most strategically advantageous locations for maintaining American influence.

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B-1B Lancer bombers and KC-10A Extenders on Diego Garcia in November 2001 during the Afghanistan bombing campaign (Source: Senior Airman Rebeca M. Luquin, U.S. Air Force / Public Domain)

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Britain’s Political Crisis and the Future of the Chagos Agreement

The situation is further complicated by Britain’s own domestic political turmoil. Following Keir Starmer’s departure as Prime Minister, the future of negotiations will largely depend on the policies of the new British government.

According to Velizade, the United Kingdom can least afford a deterioration in relations with the United States. Britain is already facing serious economic challenges, and additional tensions with its closest ally would only increase existing risks.

“Moreover, we have seen that Trump is willing to use economic pressure even against America’s own partners,” he added.

Western Double Standards and Hidden Rivalry Between Allies

Dmitry Orlov, Director General of the Strategy East-West analytical center in Kyrgyzstan, also commented on the situation, describing the Chagos dispute as one of the clearest examples of Western double standards in interpreting international law.

“Politics is not the art of governing a state, as the ancient Greeks believed. Politics is the ability of a state to impose its will on others. It makes little difference whether that will is imposed on its own citizens—domestic politics—or on other countries—foreign policy. In both cases, there are only three instruments: authority, law, and direct force. Double standards have always existed and will continue to exist as a tool of political propaganda,” the expert explained.

According to him, the Chagos dispute is only one example among many. The logic, he argues, is straightforward: when the United States and Britain pursue their interests, their actions are regarded as legitimate; when other states attempt to defend their own interests, they are immediately accused of violating international law.

“There is no need to look far for examples. One only has to compare the international community’s approach to Kosovo’s independence with its reaction to Crimea’s referendum on rejoining Russia,” Orlov noted.

Starmer Became a Casualty of a Larger Political Game

Commenting on Britain’s political crisis and Starmer’s resignation, Orlov drew attention to the details of the proposed agreement. According to him, Starmer intended to return the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius while immediately leasing it back for 99 years at a cost of $46.7 billion—equivalent to approximately £35.37 billion at current exchange rates.

“At the beginning of June this year, reports emerged suggesting that the United States was considering purchasing the archipelago outright from Mauritius. According to those reports, the proposal was discussed with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent,” he said.

In Orlov’s opinion, Starmer himself may have become a casualty of a far more complex political game.

“Clearly, Starmer has been made the scapegoat. But what matters now is how Britain’s new government approaches the Chagos issue after his departure. That will reveal the true limits of London’s sovereignty. It is also noteworthy that Starmer has been criticized not only by the Conservatives, but also by U.S. President Donald Trump,” Orlov argued.

Discussing Washington’s changing position, the expert stressed that U.S.–British relations are far more complicated than is commonly assumed.

“During one of his attacks on Starmer in March, Trump remarked: ‘We’re not dealing with Winston Churchill.’ But who was Winston Churchill? He was the man who effectively dismantled the British Empire by signing, under pressure from U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt, the Atlantic Charter on August 14, 1941. Following World War II, Britain lost its colonial empire, largely because of the Charter’s first three principles. Perhaps this also explains why Churchill lost the 1945 election to his deputy Clement Attlee. The British have long memories,” he observed.

As for the modern relationship between the United States and Britain, Orlov argues that the two countries may indeed be partners—in the sense of accomplices pursuing shared tactical objectives—but strategically they remain rivals.

“It is also worth remembering that over the past 250 years, the United States and Britain have fought two wars and came close to war on three other occasions. In essence, Trump’s criticism of Starmer stems from the fact that the British Prime Minister proved to be more of a British patriot than the American President would have preferred. It is therefore in America’s interest to weaken Britain, just as the reverse has historically been true,” he concluded.

Why Washington Will Not Give Up Diego Garcia

Speaking about the strategic significance of Diego Garcia, Orlov is convinced that Washington will never voluntarily relinquish control over the base.

“Since the United States has consistently sought to preserve its own prosperity at the expense of others, Diego Garcia is an exceptionally sensitive issue for Washington. Control over the island—and indeed over the entire Chagos Archipelago—allows the United States to monitor the southern and southeastern Indian Ocean, through which Chinese goods are shipped to European markets. Diego Garcia is also home to American strategic bombers that were used in military operations against Iraq and Afghanistan. The United States will hold on to this piece of land at any cost,” he said.

The dispute over the Chagos Archipelago has therefore long ceased to be merely a question of the legal status of a former British territory. Today it is a struggle for control over one of the most strategically important locations in the Indian Ocean, where the interests of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the broader transformation of the international order intersect.

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Alex Ksiądz is based in Poland.

Featured image is AI-generated via the author

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